Election Day update — Tuesday, November 3, 2026. Final forecasts as of November 2; we’ll add the real results as races are called.
Who will win the midterms in 2026? Going into Election Day, every major forecast, the polls and the betting markets point the same way: Democrats are favored to win the House and slightly favored to win the Senate. But favored is not certain — Republicans still have a real path to keeping the Senate. Here are the latest midterm predictions, polls and odds, explained in plain English.
Who will win the midterms? The short answer
- House: Democrats are strong favorites — 84% to 95% likely, depending on the forecast.
- Senate: Democrats are favored, but it’s closer — about 65% to 76%.
- Most likely outcome: a Democratic House and a Democratic Senate (about a 63% to 72% chance).
- Second most likely: Democrats win the House, Republicans keep the Senate (about 21% to 24%).
- Republican sweep: about a 6% to 15% chance.
2026 midterm predictions: what the forecasts say
| Forecast | Dems win House | Dems win Senate | Projected seats |
|---|---|---|---|
| Decision Desk HQ | 84% | 65% | 241 House Dems |
| Midterm Forecast | 92% | 76% | 237 House / 53 Senate |
| Scrutinel | 95% | 76% | 240 House / 52 Senate |
For context: Democrats need a net gain of just three House seats (218 for a majority) and four Senate seats (51, since Vice President JD Vance breaks 50–50 ties). Republicans currently hold the House 218–214 (plus one GOP-aligned independent) and the Senate 53–47.
Midterm election odds: Polymarket and Kalshi
Prediction markets, where traders bet real money on outcomes, gave nearly identical odds on the eve of the election:
| Outcome | Polymarket | Kalshi |
|---|---|---|
| Democrats win House | 95% | 94% |
| Democrats win Senate | 73% | 73–74% |
| Democratic sweep | 72% | 71% |
| Dem House, GOP Senate | 23% | 24% |
| Republican sweep | 6% | 6.9% |
What the polls say
Generic congressional ballot
The generic ballot asks voters which party they’d support for Congress. Democrats lead by almost 9 points:
- RealClearPolling average: Democrats 52.0%, Republicans 43.1% (D+8.9)
- Silver Bulletin average: Democrats 50.6%, Republicans 41.7% (D+8.9), up from D+6.7 on September 1
- Final polls: NYT/Siena D+11, Emerson D+10, Fox News D+9, Reuters/Ipsos D+9, Economist/YouGov D+9, CBS D+8, NBC D+7
Trump approval
Midterms are often a referendum on the president. President Trump’s approval stood at about 37% in the Silver Bulletin average, and the final NBC News poll had him at 40% approve, 60% disapprove — a record disapproval for that poll. About three in four voters were unhappy with the economy.
Who will win the Senate? Race-by-race odds
| State | Final poll | Kalshi odds |
|---|---|---|
| Maine | Jackson (D) 52, Collins (R) 47 — YouGov | Jackson 73% |
| Michigan | El-Sayed (D) 51, Rogers (R) 47 — YouGov | El-Sayed ~78% |
| Ohio | Brown (D) 50, Husted (R) 48 — YouGov | Brown 71% |
| Texas | Talarico (D) 51, Paxton (R) 47 — YouGov | — |
| Iowa | Turek (D) 50, Hinson (R) 49 — YouGov | Turek 52% |
| Kansas | Hamilton (D) 50, Marshall (R) 49 — YouGov | Hamilton 63% |
| Nebraska | Ricketts (R) 49, Osborn (I) 49 — YouGov | — |
| South Carolina | Graham (R) 48, Andrews (D) 48 — NYT/Siena | Graham 67% |
| North Carolina | Cooper (D) 52, Whatley (R) 39 — Elon | — |
| Georgia | Ossoff (D) 48, Collins (R) 40 — AJC | — |
| New Hampshire | Pappas (D) 48, Sununu (R) 41 — UMass Lowell | — |
| Alaska | Peltola (D) 50, Sullivan (R) 43 — NYT/Siena | — |
Many of these races are within the margin of error, which is why the Senate is far less certain than the House. For profiles of every contest, see our guide to the Senate races 2026.
Why Democrats are favored
- History: the president’s party almost always loses House seats in a midterm.
- The economy: persistent inflation and cost-of-living worries hurt the party in power.
- An unpopular war: the US war with Iran has weighed on Republicans.
- Enthusiasm: polls show Democratic voters more energized, and more than 54 million early ballots were cast — nearly 9 million more than in 2022.
Republicans’ case: how the GOP could still win
- Redistricting: new maps in Republican-led states such as Tennessee, Louisiana and North Carolina were drawn to add GOP seats.
- The Senate map: many battlegrounds — Texas, Ohio, Iowa, Kansas, South Carolina, Nebraska — are states Trump won comfortably in 2024.
- Money: Republicans outspent Democrats by more than $320 million in the seven Cook toss-up Senate races.
- Turnout: “If our voters turn out, we win,” says RNC Chair Joe Gruters. Republicans tend to vote in larger numbers on Election Day itself.
- Polling misses: polls underestimated Republicans in 2016, 2020 and 2024. A similar miss would put the Senate back in play.
Can the forecasts be wrong?
Yes. A 75% chance still means the other side wins one time in four. Forecasts and betting odds are based on polls, and close races can swing on turnout. That’s why the final answer to who will win the midterms comes only from the votes. Results begin after polls close at 6 p.m. ET — see our poll closing times by state and when midterm election results come in. Also follow the House races 2026 and governor races 2026.
Sources: USA Today Network via Yahoo, Decision Desk HQ, Kalshi, Forbes.
FAQ
Who is predicted to win the 2026 midterms?
Democrats are favored to win the House (84%–95% in forecasts and betting markets) and the Senate (about 65%–76%).
Will Democrats win the Senate in 2026?
They are favored but not certain. Democrats need a net gain of four seats, and several key races — Iowa, Kansas, Ohio and South Carolina — are within the margin of error.
What do the betting odds say about the midterms?
On the eve of the election, Polymarket and Kalshi gave Democrats about a 94%–95% chance of winning the House and a 73% chance of winning the Senate.
What is the generic ballot for 2026?
Democrats lead by about 9 points — 52.0% to 43.1% in the RealClearPolling average.
When will we know who won the midterms?
Many races will be called on election night, but close House seats in the West and ranked-choice races in Maine and Alaska may take days.
